What Are Non‑Permanent Residents (NPRs)?
As defined by Statistics Canada, NPRs include individuals holding work or study permits, their family members, and asylum claimants or protected persons (including those awaiting decisions).
National Snapshot
On April 1, 2025, NPRs numbered approximately 2,959,825, making up 7.1% of Canada's total population.
This is down slightly from 7.4% in October 2024, but still represents nearly 3 million people across the country.
Provincial Shares of NPRs (2024 Actual & 2029 Projection)
Based on Statistics Canada's demographic tables and projections:
| Province / Territory | NPR Share of Total Canadian NPRs |
|---|---|
| Ontario | ~45.9% |
| British Columbia | ~17.7% |
| Quebec | ~19.5% |
| Alberta | ~8.5% |
| Manitoba | ~2.8% |
| Saskatchewan | ~1.5% |
| Nova Scotia | ~1.9% |
| New Brunswick | ~1.2% |
| P.E.I. | ~0.4% |
| Newfoundland & Labrador | ~0.6% |
| Yukon | ~0.06% |
| Northwest Territories | ~0.03% |
| Nunavut | ~0.01% |
Ontario leads by almost half of total NPRs in Canada; British Columbia and Quebec combined account for approximately one-third. Alberta houses close to 8.5% of NPRs. Smaller provinces and territories hold under 3% each.
Region-by-Region Trends & Implications
- The heaviest concentration of international students and temporary workers.
- Current policy shifts—including provincial caps or slower PNP streams—are having a pronounced local impact.
- NPR share aligns with population size.
- In Q1 2025, BC saw a drop of ~10,900 NPRs, its largest quarterly outflow since the pandemic, reducing NPR share to 9.1% of BC's provincial population.
- NPR proportion stabilized around 19–20% of national NPR total.
- Federal policy changes on asylum and student permits may affect NPR growth here in 2026.
- NPR population is moderate but rising due to economic demand and interprovincial inflows.
- Alberta's housing and labour strategies will increasingly rely on both NPR and PR inflows.
NPR share is smaller, but these provinces depend more strongly on NPRs for regional labour and education needs.
NPR levels are lower in absolute terms (<2%), limiting the scale—but still relevant for settlement and provincial-specific pathways.
Projections: Where NPRs Are Headed
Statistics Canada's Population Projections (medium scenario) estimate:
- A decline to ~2,515,000 NPRs by mid-2026 and further to ~2,069,000 by mid-2027.
- NPR share is expected to drop to ~5% of the Canadian population by 2026, reflecting IRCC's targets in its 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan
- By 2029, expected NPR distribution across regions remains broadly stable with modest shifts; provincial NPR shares largely mirror the 2024 baseline.
Why This Analysis Matters for Immigration Strategy
High NPR concentration means competitive demand for PR pathways, especially via PGWP, PNP, and asylum. Applicants must act fast.
Lower absolute competition; NPR pathways via rural PNP streams, employer-driven nominations, and agriculture pilot could be more accessible.
NPR numbers may be low—but government-supported pathways like RNIP or Atlantic immigration remain advantageous for targeted applicants.
✅ Key Takeaways for Clients
- Track NPR trends regionally to understand PR pathway wait times and competition.
- Ontario & BC applicants should prioritize early action—PGWP, PR pathways via Express Entry or PNP, or provincial sponsorship.
- Alberta and Prairie Province candidates may leverage open labour demand and lower NPR influx in 2026–27.
- Smaller provinces present regional entry routes but require strategic commitments (job offers, employer engagement, community support).